ISSN 2096-2533

CN 42-1881/F



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Factor Substitution, Technological Progress Bias and Carbon Productivity Growth

Sun Meng




Abstract: Increasing carbon productivity is not only the key to achieving carbon peak by 2030, but also an inevitable requirement for green and high-quality development. This paper unifies the energy structure, factor substitution, total factor productivity and single factor carbon productivity by constructing an integrated DEA framework, and empirically analyzes the driving factors, evolution characteristics and power conversion mechanism of China's carbon productivity. The results show that China's carbon productivity has shown a phased positive growth trend, and the capital substitution effect continues to play a leading role. From the perspective of regional differences, the mid-western provinces have obvious late-comer advantages in factor substitution effects, but their total factor productivity lags far behind most eastern provinces. The decomposition of bias shows that China’s low-carbon economy is mainly based on Solow’s neutral technological progress, which has led to a higher accumulation rate through the continuous improvement of capital substitution for marginal output, but the continuous increase in capital accumulation rate than output growth rate has also caused a large amount of idle technology and waste of resources have resulted in a sharp contradictory situation between the capital substitution effect and total factor productivity. This article proposes to improve the overall carbon productivity by optimizing the control of the energy structure, promoting the transformation of capital energy substitution, and building a green technology innovation system.

Keywords: Carbon Productivity; Element Substitution; Technological Progress Bias; Growth Momentum




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