Measurement on Carbon－saving Effects of Adjusting the Structure of China’ s Foreign Trade
Wang Yong，Duan Fumei and Zhang Ｒuiting
摘要：中国外贸结构的调整对进出口贸易隐含碳产生了重要影响,目前的研究尚缺乏从定量的角度对此进行分析,本文利用投入产出模型的改进算法和中国投入产出表,将中国对外贸易隐含碳与外贸结构调整结合起来,在对各部门完全碳排放强度与外贸结构特征进行描述分析基础上重点对外贸隐含碳失衡度和外贸结构调整的节碳效应进行研究。结果显示：与 ２００７ 年相比，中国 ２０１２ 年各部门的进出口贸易的完全碳排放强度显著变小。大部分部门进口贸易完全碳排放强度要大于出口贸易的完全碳排放强度，出口贸易输出与进口贸易输入的隐含碳规模呈现动态上升与部门集中度高的特点，而外贸中的隐含碳净输出量则表现为规模下降与部门差别大的特点ꎻ总体来看，调整中国外贸结构能够有效降低我国贸易隐含二氧化碳排放的净输出量。本文基于上述研究结果建议应加强减排创新技术，从技术层面上控制碳排放，同时优化进出口贸易结构ꎬ降低贸易隐含碳排放净输出量，此外征收碳税也可作为减少碳排放的重要途径。
关键词 ： 贸易隐含碳, 外贸结构调整, 投入产出分析
Abstract: The change of foreign trade structure has an important influence on the implicit carbon of import and export trade．Using improved algorithm of input－output model and China input－output table，on the basis of descriptive analysis of the complete carbon intensity of each sector and the characteristics of foreign trade structure， this paper combines the implicit carbon of China’ s foreign trade with the structural adjustment of foreign trade，and focuses on the carbon imbalance of foreign trade and the carbon－saving effect of foreign trade structure adjustment． The results show that: the complete carbon emission intensity of the import and export trade in most departments in 2012 is obviously smaller than 2007． The intensity of the complete carbon emissions of the export trade of most sectors is less than that of the import trade． The scale of implicit carbon in foreign trade presents the characteristics of scale decline and sectoral difference． On the whole，adjusting the structure of China’ s foreign trade can effectively reduce the net output of China’ s implicit carbon dioxide emissions from trade． Based on the research results， this paper suggests that innovative technologies should be strengthened to control carbon emissions from a technical perspective， meanwhile，optimizing the structure of import and export trade and reducing the net export trade of implicit carbon emissions． In addition， the carbon tax can also be used as an important way to reduce carbon emissions．
Keywords: Carbon Embodied in Trade; Adjustment of Foreign Trade Structure; Input－output Analysis
DOI:10．19511/j．cnki．jee．2018．02．006