摘要：以往文献已经证明数字经济发展在总体上能够较好兼顾经济增长与低碳环保双重目标。然而，作为数字经济的重要分支，电子商务对碳排放的影响仍存在争议，学术界尚未形成一致结论。本文基于“电子商务进农村综合示范县”的准自然实验，采用多期DID模型考察电子商务发展对县域碳排放的影响效应。研究发现，以推动农村电商发展为目的的试点政策意外地显著降低了试点县的碳排放，经过一系列稳健性检验后该结论依然成立；而且在经济相对发达的地区、电子商务发展水平更高的省份，以及交通便利程度更高的地区中试点政策的减排效果更明显；试点政策主要通过推动县域产业结构服务化和传统产业数字化转型两个渠道实现碳减排效果。本研究为准确评估电子商务发展的碳减排效应提供了新证据， 为制定数字化减排政策提供了新思路。
关键词：电子商务；碳排放；数字经济；多期DID
Unintended Consequences: The Impact of Rural E-commerce on County-Level Carbon Emissions
Zhan Wenting, Li Bo, Lv Jiani, Xing Fei
Abstract: Previous literature has demonstrated that the development of the digital economy can effectively balance the goals of economic growth and low-carbon environmental protection. However, as an important branch of the digital economy, the impact of e-commerce on carbon emissions is still controversial, and the academic community has not reached a consensus conclusion. This paper examines the effect of e-commerce development on county-level carbon emissions based on a quasi-natural experiment in Comprehensive Demonstration Counties for E-commerce in Rural Areas, using a multi-period DID model. The study finds that pilot policies aimed at promoting rural e-commerce development inadvertently yet significantly reduced carbon emissions in the pilot counties, and the conclusion remained valid after a series of robustness tests. Moreover, the emission reduction effects of these pilot policies were more pronounced in economically developed regions, provinces with better e-commerce infrastructure, and areas with higher transportation accessibility. The pilot policies primarily achieved carbon reduction through two channels: promoting the service-oriented transformation of county industrial structures and the digital transformation of traditional industries. This paper provides new evidence for accurately assessing the carbon reduction effects of e-commerce development and offers new perspectives for formulating digital carbon reduction policies.
Keywords: E-commerce; Carbon Emissions; Digital Economy; Multi-period DID
