摘要：理顺气候风险与经济韧性的协调关系是实现高质量发展的内在要求。本文从耦合视域切入，同时遵循“格局-过程”的研究思路，在解构气候风险与经济韧性耦合协调机理的基础上，运用耦合协调度模型、GIS空间分析工具、探索性空间数据分析方法等考察了2011—2021年中国城市气候风险与经济韧性的协调关系及时空演化。研究发现：考察期内气候风险降低程度呈现类“倒U”型时序演进特征，而经济韧性指数则保持持续增长态势，二者空间表现各异，气候风险呈“北高南低”，经济韧性呈“东高西低”。气候风险与经济韧性耦合协调度逐年上升，已实现“失调-协调”的阶段性跃迁，协调发展类型也从“单极主导”转向“多元并存”，其中长三角、珠三角城市群已形成显著的协同发展极核。气候风险与经济韧性耦合协调度空间格局表现出“核心-边缘”的结构特征，其中高值区产生正向空间溢出，低值洼地却存在路径锁定效应。据此，建议实施差异化协同治理政策，东部地区需强化技术创新溢出效应，而中西部则应建立生态补偿与产业转移联动机制，同时通过构建跨区域的协同平台，实现气候风险降低与经济韧性提升的“双赢”。
关键词：气候风险；经济韧性；耦合协调；时空演化
The Coordinated Relationship and Spatio-temporal Evolution Between Climate Risk and Economic Resilience from a Coupled Perspective
Xiao Liming, Zhang Ying, Li Xiuqing, Xiao Qinlin
Abstract: Aligning climate risks with economic resilience is an inherent requirement for achieving high-quality sustainable development. This paper adopts a coupled perspective and follows the research thinking of “pattern-process”. Based on deconstructing the coupling and coordination mechanism between climate risk and economic resilience, it employs the coupling coordination degree model, GIS spatial analysis tools, and exploratory spatial data analysis methods to examine the coordinated relationship and spatio-temporal evolution of climate risk and economic resilience in Chinese cities from 2011 to 2021. The study finds that: Firstly, during the observation period, the reduction in climate risk exhibited an inverted U-shaped temporal evolution pattern, while the economic resilience index maintained a consistent upward trend. Spatially, the two indicators demonstrated distinct distributions: climate risk showed a “high in the north, low in the south” pattern, whereas economic resilience displayed an “eastern dominance, western lag” characteristic. Secondly, the coupling coordination degree between climate risk and economic resilience has increased year by year, achieving a phased transition from “imbalance” to “coordination”. The types of coordinated development have also shifted from “unipolar dominance” to “diverse coexistence”, with significant synergistic development poles emerging in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations. Thirdly, the spatial pattern of the coupling coordination degree between climate risk and economic resilience displays a “core-periphery” structural characteristic, where high-value areas exhibit positive spatial spillover effects, while low-value depressions suffer from path-locking effects. Based on these findings, it is recommended to implement differentiated and coordinated governance policies. The eastern region should strengthen the spillover effects of technological innovation, while the central and western regions should establish a linkage mechanism between ecological compensation and industrial transfer. Additionally, by constructing cross-regional collaborative platforms, a “win-win” situation can be achieved in reducing climate risk and enhancing economic resilience.
Keywords: Climate Risk; Economic Resilience; Coupling and Coordination; Spatio-temporal Features
全文：
耦合视域下气候风险与经济韧性的协调关系及时空演化.pdf