摘要：在“双碳”目标深入推进的背景下，政府气候政策的动态调整已成为影响企业绿色转型行为的关键举措。文章基于文本分析法获取各省气候政策不确定性指数和企业气候风险感知指数，通过两项相乘获得企业感知的气候政策不确定性指标，研究其对企业绿色全要素生产率的影响。研究表明，气候政策不确定性会阻碍企业绿色全要素生产率提升。调节机制分析表明，耐心资本和政府环保补贴会减缓气候政策不确定性对企业绿色全要素生产率的负向效应，而绿色金融发展水平并没有缓解这一负向效应。异质性分析发现，气候政策不确定性对企业绿色全要素生产率的负向效应在高竞争行业、非能源行业以及气候政策变化加速期更为明显，而在国企和非国企之间没有明显区别。对绿色全要素生产率分解后发现，气候政策不确定性短期内会显著降低企业绿色技术效率，而对绿色技术进步并没有显著负向影响。细分气候风险感知发现，无论是否有气候政策变化的影响，企业感知的气候物理风险均会阻碍企业绿色全要素生产率提升；而企业感知的气候转型风险在气候政策变化的影响下会显著降低企业的绿色全要素生产率水平。最后，文章提出企业应树立绿色发展理念、积极吸收耐心资本、合理获取政府补贴、强化产业链上下游企业间合作，并做好政策追踪和韧性投资，从而应对气候政策不确定性；政府在制定气候政策时要遵循循序渐进的原则，重视绿色补贴政策及绿色金融发展对企业绿色技术创新的激励作用。
关键词：气候政策不确定性；绿色全要素生产率；耐心资本；政府环保补贴；绿色金融
Climate Policy Uncertainty Response and Green Total Factor Productivity: Based on Multi-dimensional Optimization Path
Li Baomin, Jiang Shiwei
Abstract: Against the backdrop of the deepening implementation of the dual carbon goals, dynamic adjustment of climate policies has become a key measure for governments to influence enterprises' behavior in green transformation. Based on the text analysis method, the paper obtains the provincial climate policy uncertainty index and the enterprise climate risk perception index, and obtains the climate policy uncertainty index perceived by enterprises through two transfers, and studies the impact on the green total factor productivity of enterprises. The study found that climate policy uncertainty will reduce the green total factor productivity of enterprises. The analysis of the regulation effect shows that patient capital and government environmental protection subsidies will mitigate the negative effect of climate policy uncertainty on the green total factor productivity of enterprises, while the development level of green finance does not alleviate this negative effect. Heterogeneity analysis found that the negative effect of climate policy uncertainty on the green total factor productivity of enterprises is more obvious in highly competitive industries, non-energy industries and the accelerating period of climate policy change, while there is no obvious difference between state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises. After the decomposition of green total factor productivity, it is found that the uncertainty of climate policy will significantly reduce the efficiency of green technology, but has no significant impact on the progress of green technology. Subdivided climate risk perception found that the physical risk perceived by enterprises will hinder the improvement of enterprise green productivity, regardless of whether there is the impact of climate policy change. The perceived risk of transformation by enterprises will significantly reduce the green productivity level of enterprises under the impact of climate policy change. Finally, the article proposes that enterprises should establish a green development concept, actively absorb patient capital, reasonably obtain government subsidies, strengthen cooperation between upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain, and do a good job in policy tracking and resilient investment to cope with changes in climate policies. When formulating climate policies, the government should follow the principle of gradual progress, pay attention to the incentive role of green subsidy policies and green finance in promoting green technological innovation of enterprises.
Keywords: Climate Policy Uncertainty; Green Total Factor Productivity; Patient Capital; Government Environmental Subsidies; Green Finance
