摘要：为系统评估欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）对中国省域经济的差异性影响，本文将基于全球贸易与多区域可计算一般均衡模型，结合中国省份区域间投入产出数据，模拟分析CBAM对我国省域宏观经济及其产业的冲击，并进一步评估多类应对政策的实施效果。研究结果表明：在宏观层面，CBAM在实施初期对全国及各省GDP的直接冲击相对有限；但随着征收范围向全产业链逐步扩展、免费配额持续退出并叠加实施国家的不断扩张，其对我国经济的负面影响将明显增大，且沿海省份所承受的冲击明显强于中西部地区。机制分析表明，CBAM主要通过出口需求抑制和产业链需求传导影响我国省域经济发展；政策评估结果显示，出口退税在短期内对缓冲CBAM冲击具有最为直接的效果；“对等关税”反制则会放大宏观经济损失并加剧居民福利下降；将国内碳价对标欧盟并通过碳收入回流补贴的方式实施政策，在稳定经济增长和提升居民福利方面表现最为显著；区域合作措施短期效应相对有限，但通过推动市场多元化，有助于增强外向型省份的长期抗冲击能力。本文为在CBAM约束下制定差异化、分阶段的区域应对政策提供了系统化量化依据。
关键词：欧盟碳边境调节机制；区域经济；多区域均衡模型
An Assessment of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism's Impact on China's Provincial Economies and Corresponding Policy Responses
Tan Ci Zhao Wenqi Sun Jiaze
Abstract: To systematically assess the heterogeneous impacts of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on China’s provincial economies, this paper employs a global trade and multi-regional computable general equilibrium framework, combined with interprovincial input–output data for Chinas provinces, to simulate the macroeconomic and industrial effects of CBAM and to further evaluate the effectiveness of alternative policy responses. The results indicate that: at the macro level, the direct impact of CBAM on national and provincial GDP is relatively limited in the initial implementation phase; however, as the coverage of CBAM expands along the entire value chain, free allowances are gradually phased out, and more countries participate in its implementation, the negative effects on China’s economy intensify significantly, with coastal provinces experiencing substantially larger shocks than inland regions; mechanism analysis shows that CBAM affects China’s provincial economic performance primarily through export demand suppression and industrial chain demand transmission; policy evaluation results suggest that export tax rebates are the most direct and effective short-term measure for mitigating CBAM-induced shocks, while retaliatory tariffs tend to amplify macroeconomic losses and exacerbate welfare declines. Aligning domestic carbon prices with the EU level and redistributing carbon revenue through compensatory transfers proves to be the most effective strategy for stabilizing economic growth and improving household welfare. Although regional cooperation measures exhibit limited short-term effects, they help enhance the long-term resilience of export-oriented provinces by promoting market diversification. Overall, this study provides a systematic quantitative basis for designing differentiated and phased regional policy responses under CBAM constraints.
Keywords: European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (EU CBAM); Regional Economy; Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model
全文：
欧盟碳边境调节机制对我国省域经济冲击的评估与应对策略研究.pdf