摘要：在生态文明战略持续深化的背景下，生态产品价值实现与碳减排目标的协同推进成为绿色低碳发展的重要议题。本文基于2010—2022年中国1741个区县的面板数据，采用双重机器学习方法识别“生态银行”试点政策的碳减排效应及其作用机制。研究结果表明：第一，“生态银行”试点政策使区县碳排放量得以下降，且这一结果在改变样本切分比例、开展内生性检验以及缓解非随机选择偏误等多项稳健性检验后依然稳健。第二，该政策的碳减排效应具有显著的异质性，在产业集聚度更高、环境规制更强以及非资源型的区县中表现更为突出。第三，机制检验显示，政策主要通过提升金融可得性和促进技术创新两条路径实现碳排放减少。第四，进一步分析发现，该政策在抑制碳排放的同时，也显著降低了SO2与PM2.5排放，呈现出明显的协同减污效应。研究结论表明，“生态银行”试点政策作为生态文明制度创新的重要实践，在区域低碳发展和污染治理协同推进方面具有显著成效，为政策推广和区域低碳发展的差异化推进提供了经验证据。
关键词：生态银行；碳减排；双重机器学习；金融可得性；技术创新
Effects of the “Eco-bank” Pilot Policy on Carbon Emission
Reduction
Ren Yayun, Liu Yaru, YuYantuan
Abstract: As China deepens its ecological civilization strategy, advancing the synergy between ecological product value realization and carbon mitigation has become a key issue in green and low-carbon development. Using panel data for 1,741 counties from 2010 to 2022, this study employs a double machine learning (DML) approach to identify the carbon emission reduction effects of the “Eco-bank” pilot policy and examine its underlying mechanisms. The results show that, first, the policy reduces county-level carbon emissions, and this finding remains robust across multiple checks, including alternative sample-splitting ratios, endogeneity tests, and adjustments for non-random selection bias. Second, the carbon mitigation effect exhibits significant heterogeneity, being more pronounced in counties with higher industrial agglomeration, stronger environmental regulation, and non-resource-based economic structures. Third, mechanism analysis indicates that enhanced financial accessibility and strengthened technological innovation are the two primary pathways through which the policy reduces carbon emissions. Fourth, extended analysis reveals that the policy also significantly decreases SO2 and PM2.5 concentrations, demonstrating a clear co-benefit in pollution abatement. Overall, the “Eco-bank” pilot policy, as an important institutional innovation under China’s ecological civilization framework, effectively promotes regional low-carbon development and coordinated pollution control, providing empirical evidence for policy expansion and differentiated promotion across regions.
Keywords: Eco-bank; Carbon Emission Reduction; Double Machine Learning; Financial Accessibility; Technological Innovation
