摘要：个人碳账户作为驱动绿色消费的创新工具，已成为我国消费端碳减排的重要举措。本文通过设计绿色消费多场景模拟实验，采集到3021份有效数据，运用Oprobit等模型实证研究发现：个人碳账户下绿色补贴、成本约束、碳配额和社会规范四类激励政策，均能显著地推进公众绿色消费，且成本约束政策、碳配额政策的负向激励效果更显著；四类激励政策在联动实施下存在交互效应，表现为绿色补贴、碳配额与社会规范三类政策在绿色消费全场景下均呈现互补关系，而成本约束政策与碳配额政策在绿色使用、闲置回收等场景下存在显著摩擦关系；个人碳账户下“绿色补贴+碳配额+社会规范”政策组合的激励效果最佳，且在绿色购买场景下可达到“1+1>2”的协同效果；个人碳账户下政策组合在推进公众绿色消费进程中，政策认同具有显著的中介效应，且高学历、年轻、中等收入及女性群体更易产生政策认同感，进而成为绿色消费“先行军”。文章探究多元激励政策推进公众绿色消费的协同机制，为个人碳账户设计与实施高效政策体系提供参考，加速实现社会全面绿色转型。
关键词：个人碳账户；激励政策；绿色消费；政策组合；协同效应
A Study on the Impact of Multiple Incentive Policies in Synergy on Green Consumption in the Context of Personal Carbon Accounts
Feng Yu, Wang Jianming
Abstract: Personal carbon accounts have become an innovative tool to drive green consumption and a key measure for carbon emission reduction in China’s consumption sector. Based on multi-scenario experiments on green consumption, a total of 3021 valid samples were collected. Empirical analysis using the Ordered Probit (Oprobit) model yields several key findings. Firstly, the four types of incentive regulatory policies, namely, green subsidies, cost-constraining policies, carbon quotas, and social norms policies, under personal carbon account, can significantly promote the public's green consumption, and the effect of cost-constraining and carbon quota negative incentive policies is better. Secondly, the four types of incentive policies have interactive effects under the joint implementation, which shows that the three types of policies, green subsidies, carbon quotas and social norms policies, have complementary relationship in the whole stages of green consumption, while the cost-constraining and carbon quota policies have frictional relationship in the green use, idle recycling and other stages. Thirdly, under the individual carbon account, the policy combination of green subsidy + carbon quota + social norms policies has the best incentive effect, and the synergistic effect of 1+1>2 can be achieved in the green purchase stages. Finally, in the process of promoting green reduce carbon consumption under personal carbon account, policy identity has a significant mediating effect, and highly educated, young, middle-income, and female groups are more likely to generate policy identity and then become green consumption pioneers. This article explores the collaborative mechanism of multiple incentive policies in promoting public green consumption, and provides references for the design and implementation of efficient policy systems for personal carbon accounts, accelerating the realization of a fully green society.
Keywords：Personal Carbon Accounts; Incentive Policies; Green Consumption; Policy Mix; Interaction Effects
